Analytics and the NFL Draft

The National Football League (NFL) is one of the most popular sports leagues in the world. Each year, it holds events that help teams find new players to add to their rosters. The NFL Combine and NFL Draft are two of these events, and they are vital to the success of every team in the league. Analytics plays an essential role in these events. In this post, we discuss the possible uses of analytics in the NFL Combine and NFL Draft process to determine a player's potential for success.

The NFL Combine:

The NFL Combine is an annual event held in Indianapolis, Indiana, where NFL coaches, scouts, and executives evaluate college football players. The players participate in various physical and mental tests, including the 40-yard dash, bench press, shuttle, 3-cone, vertical jump, and Wonderlic test. The results of these tests are used to evaluate a player's athleticism, strength, and intelligence, all factors contributing to success in the NFL.

Analytics plays a crucial role in the NFL Combine by providing teams with objective data to evaluate a player's performance. For example, the 40-yard dash is one of the most critical tests at the Combine. Teams use advanced analytics to measure a player's actual speed and acceleration, which can help identify players who have the potential to excel on the field, especially in specific positions.

For NFL running backs, speed in the three-cone drill can be one of the most accurate predictors of success, followed by weight and acceleration. Acceleration can be a better predictor of success than speed. While speed can be enticing for a wide receiver, other factors are more important. Getting open is more important than running fast downfield- which can be some players' only move, so three-cone, speed, and height together can be significant predictors.[i]

Size is essential for a tight end, followed by speed and shuttle. Being able to get open in tight spaces is an absolute must.

The need for more specific evaluation criteria has led to advanced analytic use in the NFL.

Interior offensive linemen are best evaluated by the 20-yard shuttle and speed, followed by weight. Interior O-Line players are getting pummeled by 350lb Defensive tackles head-on and rushers through every gap and need to change directions fast. They need to adjust as quickly as safety can blitz, which is fast.

According to a study, speed is the most important predictor of the draft order.[ii] While this translates into one of the foremost predictors of overall success in the NFL, it varies significantly by position. Each position has several contributing measures that, when evaluated together, are of the highest importance to evaluators.

It is essential to note that the most predictive factor of NFL success is prior success in football, regardless of position. Not surprisingly, Combine Speed is the most significant predictor of Yards per game for a running back. For quarterbacks, the single highest predictor is college passing touchdowns. Instead, people often focus on physical characteristics, such as height and hand size, with a near-zero correlation.[iii] Take this with intangibles like leadership, personality, intelligence, etc. You have a difficult choice at the highest cost positions.

Conclusion:

The NFL Combine and NFL Draft are two of the most critical events in the NFL offseason, and analytics plays a crucial role in both. By providing teams with objective data that can inform evaluations of a player's potential for success, analytics can help teams identify players who may have been overlooked by others or who have specific in-demand skills. Development and use of more advanced analytics in the NFL will improve player evaluations, identify hidden potential, and improve chances of success.

[i] Winks, Hayden. NFL Draft Analytics for QB. NBC Sports Edge. February 11, 2019.

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-qb

[ii] Meil, Andrew James. Predicting Success Using the NFL Scouting Combine. California State University Press. 2018 https://scholarworks.calstate.edu/downloads/1z40kt64t

[iii] Winks, Hayden. NFL Draft Analytics for QB. NBC Sports Edge. February 11, 2019.

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-qb